The alleged Israeli assassination of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran has sent shock waves throughout the Middle East, revealing much about the complex and often hidden dynamics at play in the region. While the immediate consequences are being scrutinized, a deeper look at the broader context uncovers a crucial but often overlooked player: Russia.
Russia’s role in the Iran-Israel conflict is nothing short of a delicate act in strategic balancing. On one hand, Moscow has had a longstanding relationship with Tehran, providing it with critical military hardware, nuclear technology, and a lifeline against international sanctions. On the other, Moscow has cultivated a pragmatic relationship with Israel characterized by selective, issue-specific cooperation, including targeted intelligence sharing on key regional threats and strategic interests. This dual approach is not merely opportunism but a calculated strategy designed to maximize Moscow’s influence in the region.
Nowhere is this balancing act more evident than in Syria. Despite its close relations with Iran, Russia has consistently refrained from hindering Israel’s efforts to target Iranian assets there. This is not because Moscow is indifferent to Iran’s goals but because it shares Israel’s concerns about Tehran’s growing influence in the war-torn country. With the Bashar al-Assad regime’s internal threats largely neutralized, Russia is wary of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah becoming dominant players in Syria, which could undermine Moscow’s own long-term strategic interests. Reports of strained relations between Tehran and Moscow over Iran’s military presence in Syria are telling. Russia has reportedly pushed for a reduction in Iran’s security footprint in Syria, a move Tehran has resisted. As such, Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria and the killing of high-ranking Iranian generals there serve an important Russian interest that it has in common with Tel Aviv.
One of the most intriguing aspects of Israeli-Russian relations is the role Moscow continues to play as a bridge to Tehran in spite of the recent deterioration of ties between Moscow and Tel Aviv. Russia’s deep ties with Iran offer Israel an invaluable opportunity to gain insights into Iranian strategic thinking. This relationship, facilitated through diplomatic channels and frequent high-level bilateral exchanges, enables Israel to better anticipate and understand Iran’s geopolitical moves.. Years of sanctions and international isolation have driven Iran closer to Russia, making Moscow the primary partner in Iran’s nuclear program, the main supplier of advanced military hardware, and a trusted means of evading sanctions. This relationship is not just transactional; it is deeply rooted in the personal connections between the Russian and Iranian leadership. Russian President Vladimir Putin has developed close ties with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his inner circle, giving Moscow unprecedented access to Iran’s strategic deliberations. For Israel, this connection is a critical asset, offering insights that no other country can provide.
Moreover, Russia’s defense cooperation with Iran, particularly in areas like drone and missile technology, has enabled it to both gain and enhance strategic and intelligence leverage over Tehran. This partnership has allowed Moscow to develop a comprehensive understanding of both the key individuals within the Iranian defense establishment as well as the location of military sites and strategic assets. In addition, Russia’s ability to potentially supply faulty or compromised equipment to Tehran, or to condition sales on specific demands, gives it considerable leverage over Iran. This dynamic was evident following reports of Russia supplying advanced air defense systems to Tehran after a visit this month by Sergei Shoigu, who conveyed Putin’s desire for a limited Iranian response to Haniyeh’s killing and no civilian casualties.
The assassination has left Iran in a precarious position. On the one hand, it needs to respond to maintain its credibility both at home and among its regional allies. On the other, any significant retaliation risks escalating into a war with Israel—a conflict Iran is ill prepared for, given its economic woes and the regime’s unpopularity among the public. The Iranian public, already angry at the regime’s involvement in Arab affairs, is unlikely to support further escalation, especially if it results in more suffering for ordinary Iranians in the name of defending non-Iranian entities like Hamas. Equally important, Iran’s traditional strategy of supporting proxy groups in the Arab world to keep conflicts away from its own borders is increasingly under strain. The assassination in Tehran, and the pressure on Iran to respond, have exposed the limits of this approach. If Tehran acts rashly, it risks triggering a conflict that could have devastating consequences for the regime. If it fails to act, it risks losing face both domestically and regionally.
For its part, Russia stands to gain from the current tensions in several ways. By quietly supporting Israel’s actions and exerting influence over Iran to prevent a major escalation, Russia maintains its position as a key regional power broker. This balancing act allows Moscow to extract concessions from both sides. Israel, for instance, may resist Western calls to support Ukraine more actively, particularly in sharing advanced technology or intelligence. By keeping Iran in check and managing its responses, additionally, Russia ensures that Tehran remains reliant on Moscow for diplomatic and military support, thereby solidifying Russia’s influence over Iran. More broadly, a distracted and destabilized Middle East serves Russia’s broader geopolitical goals by diverting Western attention and resources away from Eastern Europe where Russia is more directly engaged.
The Israeli assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran is not just a provocative act of retaliation against Hamas; it is a reminder of the intricate and often hidden dynamics that define the Middle East. Russia, with its extensive access to Iran’s leadership and its ties to Israeli leadership, albeit more limited, plays a crucial role in this conflict. By carefully balancing its relationships and leveraging its influence, Moscow not only shapes the immediate outcomes but also secures its long-term strategic interests in the region. As tensions continue to simmer, the Russian factor will remain a critical, if sometimes understated, element in the evolving rivalry between Iran and Israel.
Nima Khorrami is a research associate at the Arctic Institute.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense, or that of any organization the author is affiliated with, including the Arctic Institute.
Image credit: Khamenei.ir, via Wikimedia Commons
