In Episode 48 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast, we discuss the historical motivations and modern methods behind Russia’s use of hybrid warfare on the international stage. Our guests begin today’s conversation discussing how significant historical events and Russian cultural memory shape the Russian worldview, with particular emphasis on the role that the collapse of the Soviet Union had on the psyche of Vladimir Putin himself. They explore Russian motivations and methods since the end of the twentieth century and then pivot to potential Western responses to an increasingly aggressive Russia. Our guests conclude with implications for both the public and the practitioner.
During this episode, our guests discuss George Kennan‘s then-anonymous article, “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” published in the July 1947 issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, which expanded on Kennan’s confidential February 1946 “Long Telegram.” They also reference a 2020 book by Dr. Thomas Rid, Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare. Thomas Rid appeared on a January 2021 Irregular Warfare Podcast episode, “Competing for Influence: Operations in the Information Environment.”
Shashank Joshi is the defense editor at The Economist. Prior to joining The Economist in 2018, he served as senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and research associate at Oxford University’s Changing Character of War Programme. He has published books on Iran’s nuclear program and India’s armed forces, written for a wide range of newspapers and journals, and appeared regularly on radio and television. He holds degrees from Cambridge and Harvard, where he served as a Kennedy scholar from Britain to the United States.
Dr. Rob Person is an associate professor of international relations at the United States Military Academy in West Point, New York, where he teaches courses in Russian and post-Soviet politics, international relations, and comparative politics in the Department of Social Sciences. His research focuses on the foreign and domestic politics of Russia and the former Soviet states. Dr. Person holds a PhD in political science from Yale University and an MA in Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies from Stanford University. He is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations and an affiliated faculty member at West Point’s Modern War Institute.
Abigail Gage and Shawna Sinott host Episode 48. Please reach out to them with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.
Image credit: kremlin.ru (via Wikimedia Commons)
The most important historical lesson that Russia learned comes from the Old Cold War of yesterday; wherein, they watched the U.S./the West (a) as per its “containment” and “roll back” strategies, herein, (b) working more “by, with and through” the more conservative elements of the world’s population, (1) thwart and undermine the Soviets/the communists efforts to “make the world safe for communism” and (2) ultimately eliminate the power, influence and control that the Soviets/the communists had built up and enjoyed in much of the world post-World War II.
Thus, when the U.S./the West, post-the Old Cold War, determined that it would “make the world safe for capitalism, globalization and the global economy,” such nations as Russia and China understood that:
a. Because of this such U.S./Western initiative (which, much like communism, required significant, and often unpopular, political, economic, social and/or value “change”) —
b. They (Russia, China, etc.) could now do to the U.S./the West what the U.S./the West had done to them; this, by
1. Adopting “containment,” “roll back” and “elimination of power, influence and control” strategies themselves, herein,
2. Working “by, with and through” the more conservative elements of the populations of the world as per these such causes.
(After all, as in the “make the world safe for communism” initiative of the Soviets/the communists in the Old Cold War of yesterday — likewise with the “make the world safe for capitalism, globalization and the global economy” initiative of the U.S./the West in the New/Reverse Cold War of today — [a] the conservative elements of the world’s populations; these are [b] the “natural enemies” of those pressing for significant political, economic, social and/or value change. Yes?)
As to major victories by Russia, China, etc. — as per these “borrowed-from-the-U.S./West-from-the-Old-Cold-War” strategies and related techniques — look no further than:
a. Generally, the trend toward conservatism that we see happening throughout much of the world today and
b. Specifically, the Brexit and the election of Donald Trump; wherein, (a) the conservative elements of the populations of such entities as Great Britain and the United States, these (b) put an end to much of the “make the world safe for capitalism, globalization and the global economy” initiative/efforts of the U.S./the West of late.
Bottom Line Thought — Based on the Above:
“War-fighting” — thus from the perspective that I provide above — this requires that the U.S./the West find a way to (a) overcome Russia, China, etc.’s “containment,” “roll back” and “elimination of power, influence and control” strategies and (b) their use of the conservative elements of the world’s populations in these causes.
(Note:
a. For an example of the U.S.'s use of hybrid warfare to achieve the strategic goals of "containment" and "roll back" in the Old Cold War of yesterday, see the "War on the Rocks" article "America Did Hybrid Warfare Too."
b. For an example of how, in the Old Cold War of yesterday, efforts by the Soviets/the communists to "make the world safe for communism" [a] alienated the conservative elements of the populations of Nicaragua and, thus, [b] made these such conservative elements readily available for use by the U.S. re: our "containment" and "roll back" strategies, see the April 7, 1991 New York Times article "The Sandinista Decade" by Linda Robertson.)
Correction:
The author of the 1991 New York Times article "The Sandinista Decade," this is the, rather famous now, Linda Robinson.
Ukraine now desperately needs the help of Europe and the United States, but they are ready to help only in words. "We are very concerned" – this phrase is repeated by all world leaders, but it does not help Ukraine!
Our people will definitely win this war! We will rebuild our Ukraine!