Societal fatigue is difficult to quantify, but lurking beneath the US military’s struggle to persuade enough young Americans to join its ranks is the exhaustion felt by the American people who just witnessed a generation of servicemembers deploy again and again to a war without bounds. A nation going to war possesses a limited budget in social capital—support for the war by the population. The Global War on Terrorism—with its major troop contributions to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the associated, far-flung set of counterterrorism operations elsewhere—spent this capital early, borrowed on credit, and abused the resource to extremes after two decades. The American people (to include future viable service candidates) are exhausted at the cost of these years of war.
It is significant that multiple theaters of war, drone strikes in a range of countries, and smaller deployments, especially of special operations forces, around the world were lumped together under the label of the Global War on Terrorism, or GWOT. The term’s nebulousness did little to convey achievable strategic objectives. Even after President Barack Obama retired the term from official use in 2013, it has endured as the catchall of military operations, ranging by type and location, all justified by the attacks on September 11, 2001. It also is poignant that there was no overt declaration of the end of America’s longest war; rather, servicemember eligibility for the National Defense Service Medal—the ubiquitous award received by all servicemembers since September 11, 2001—ended on December 31, 2022 with nary a whisper. Unceremoniously, the next generation of recruits entered the queue for the American military’s next era haunted by the ghost of GWOT.
Much has been written about the Defense Department’s flagging efforts to address the growing challenge of military recruitment in recent years. Since 2021—GWOT’s apparent end, bannered by the ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan—DoD has consistently missed its recruiting goals across its service branches, resulting in the lowest recruiting numbers seen since 1999. It should be noted that, in every era of America’s emergence from conflict, recruiting numbers always shrink amid demobilization. The post-GWOT era, however, carries greater risk than before because of the ghost that hangs over the enterprise.
The Army missed its recruitment goal for 2022 by more than ten thousand, while the Air Force fell short of its goals across active and reserve components by just over two thousand. The Navy was approximately seven thousand recruits short. The Marines and Space Force are by far the smallest service branches with the lowest targets, but the Corps barely met its goal in 2022 while incoming Space Force guardians were short on new officers despite crossover from other services to specific roles and positions. For 2023, signs indicate it will be worse yet in terms of meeting recruitment goals.
Among the most common answers to the riddle are lack of competitive pay compared to private and commercial opportunities, substandard living conditions for entry-level servicemembers, and abysmal healthcare for both active duty and veterans. The politicization of diversity in the ranks is another key factor cited as a shortcoming in recruiting and failures to meet recruitment goals. The COVID pandemic made service even more volatile after the blowback of forcefully separating servicemembers over vaccine mandates during a chaotic time in our nation’s history. The widespread problems with sexual assault reporting and victim support are yet another detractor for new recruits.
Each of those factors has contributed to the recruiting crisis, but they are not the fundamental reasons the Defense Department is short of recruitment goals. There is an elephant in the room that must be acknowledged.
A Gallup poll conducted in July 2023 unveiled the harsh reality: Americans’ confidence in the military is at its lowest mark since 1988, with the average rating hovering around 60 percent. This is predictable based on the stark drops often seen in postwar environments, after confidence remained at or near 70 percent throughout GWOT’s duration. At wider glance, this is reflective of the startling decline in institutional faith across American democracy and society; only the military and small businesses rate at or above the 60 percent threshold, while law enforcement, banks, schools, big tech/businesses, and the medical system range from 20 to 50 percent confidence. Congress rates in the single digits.
The American people have lost faith in the military as an institution—if not entirely at least to a worrying degree that must be addressed. And it needs to happen before the next crisis—potentially a conflict with a peer adversary—to rebuild the social capital that has been overdrawn.
History indicates that recruitment will abruptly reverse course should that next war break out. It happened in 2001 after the terror attacks on the American homeland, which saw an 8 percent increase over the year prior. And it happened in the early 1960s with the advent of the war in Vietnam. It also remained relatively stable throughout the 1970s and 1980s with the threat of the Cold War in full swing.
But after twenty years of war, a failure to commit to a clear strategy, or even specify a feasible strategic military goal, and the eventual decline of public support for a military effort that defied outlining a realistic or achievable outcome, the current recruiting crisis is far deeper and more complicated than previous postwar eras. While the American military certainly did not lose the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, achieving overwhelming tactical success against overmatched adversaries, they still ended or transitioned without achieving identifiably positive strategic outcomes.
Therein lies the ghost of GWOT: the difficult withdrawal from a war that policymakers failed to understand yet sustained across decades and generations. That ghost takes the form of the stark loss of faith in the military as an institution. How could the burden of the outcome not weigh heavily, even if unspoken, in the minds of American citizens deciding whether or not to join an all-volunteer force as the American war machine looks ahead to an increasingly complex world of threats?
It was easy to sell young American men and women on the ideal of protecting the homeland from terrorist groups and violent extremists during the GWOT generation. These were relevant and valid threats, to be sure, but deterring and defeating those genuine threats was undermined by the endlessly expansive scope of the war. It was easy for policymakers to package patriotism and love for country into recruitment slogans with the ever-expanding Overseas Contingency Operations pool of funds to sustain a war with few discernible bounds.
During that war, servicemen and women returned to the same sands and mountains of GWOT again and again, with no end in sight to the war that could claim their lives at any time. Veterans might naturally struggle with the question of their service’s purpose: “Blood, sweat, tears and treasure, and those of us who made it through the other side ask ‘why’? What was that precious human capital spent for? . . . We were all caught up in the notion that maybe we’d be able to effect a change. Maybe, after all these years of being away from home . . . we could look back in a generation and tell our grandchildren that we did some good in the world that lasted.” Those same questions take on an even wider meaning when framed in the subject of recruitment. Many Americans today—especially the younger ones who the armed services need to recruit—have GWOT as the only reference of what their blood and treasure can buy. There is little to point to as an answer.
The ghost of GWOT haunts the recruitment offices across the cities and towns of the United States. The failure to effect change with the most powerful machine that human history has ever assembled looms over the decision to volunteer. These are the long-term consequences of the choice to send our forces overseas absent clear, articulate, and realistic objectives against which to align resources and hard power, to a war that was unwinnable but spent lives in the endeavor anyway.
Ethan Brown is a senior fellow at the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. He is an eleven-year veteran of the US Air Force, serving as a special operations joint terminal attack controller with six deployments to multiple combat zones. He can be followed on twitter @LibertyStoic.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
Image credit: Matthew Moeller, US Army
Nice article. I believe that it is however missing some very important truths about current day Americans. I will only highlight what saw before retirement from the Army. The parents and America only took notice notice of GWOT for the first 5 years and only perked up when Bin Laden and Saddam were killed. Other than that it was just a story on the news that was always political fodder. More than that, the willingness of American Parents to shelter their adult children at home was exasperated by COVID. These sheltered young Americans learned that if it is hard, " My parents will make it go away"
This is not a surprise since less than one percent have ever been brave enough to protect any and everything that makes America what it is. Make no mistakes, they will serve or be drafted!! America will not become weak due to the lack of spine on full display for the world to see!
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Nothing but respect for the “Long Gray Line”. Watched the complete rebuild of the Army, after watching the Draftees leave my first Unit ⅙ Inf. My Exsum: Got volun-selected to be a recruiter for not three but four years. Finished with twenty RA not as a Recruiter. My first Station Commander went on to be CSM of USAREC if I'm not mistaken. Hella good Recruiter and Leader. His mantra was individual training while contacting and talking to as many people as you could. People will say no, but they invariably need a way out of what they perceive as a bad start on their road to life. After Nam it was all about respect. Our rebuild was based on it. We were the non-electric popup targets to blame of Society. After Nam; we did our AAR and came out a better force by educating and learning from our members. I would have to say our Policy Wonks in Washington continue to exhibit an ability to stab while holding the blade not the haft of the knife. Our Military will recover and is not prone to their views of our readiness, it is as always a “Come as you are” War. Liked your Article.
In talking with my troops about decisions to separate and talking to potential recruits the #1 issue I've heard is a lack of give a sh*ts from commanders and other officers. You mentioned it briefly saying it's political between ranks, but in my experience it is a bigger issue than what was alluded to. Often times we do dumb pointless exercises, stay late, deal with sexual assults, etc. because officers and stripe chasers are unwilling to go to bat for their people. The usual statement is "it builds discipline" or "this is what i dealt with." Officers and SNCOs need to be held responsible for the environments they create within their sections.
Sections who's leadership generally cares for their wellbeing typically don't have issues with retention. Troops want to deploy and do their jobs, but they want to be supported to do it too.
"Why fight for a country that cares more about other people than there own first." Is what I hear from this generation. It's caused by the current administration policies. Sad but true..
This is an excellent assessment of our current situation. It is such a tragedy that after the hard work the U.S. military put in rebuilding itself and the public perception of its competence and dedication after Vietnam, so much public faith was loss by feckless political leadership. The service members sacrifices of the GWOT were made faithfully in pursuit of national security. That security was predicated on the elimination of global terror networks and projection of strength and capability that would deter any potential adversaries. The political leadership fumbled with those objectives never identifying clear endstates that resulted in victory. While it is true that if another war is declared some would volunteer to defend our nation, the faith in our political AND senior military leadership must be restored before that eventualaliy comes about.
I think the bigger problem is the new generation has commitment issues. Social media fulfills the need to always be entertained, always do what feels good at the moment with no commitment. Why sign up for 4, 6 or 12 years when I can't get out on my own terms? You have to chose one job, yet people twice their age struggle to figure out what they want to do when they grow up. I haven't seen any young student consider "war fatigue" or the potential to be deployed in Eastern Europe as a deterring factor. Most don't even have a clue about current political events. The military isnt conductive to becoming an influencer, or lead a "nomad" lifestyle (in their parents basement), or allow you to be an individual.
Next they raise the age limit, but recruit 40yo the way they recruit 18yo. They don't care about your 20+ years of experience, they need to fill jobs but you can't ask for better pay or rank because its all predetermined so there are no incentives to be good or better…so…why would anyone want to join unless they want to be mediocre at their job or are truly desperate?
Its not the GWOT that has slowed recruitment. Its the overt wokeness of the military and the antipatriotic movement in this country. Why would anyone want to serve when thwy are bombarded daily with media and teachers telling them to hate this country.
GWOT:Global War On Terrorism is a GLOBAL enterprise. So, why not include foreigners that would be interested in volunteering in exchange for a residence visa or a new identity (French Foreign Legion style of recruitment?)…
This is a very clear and impactful message. I served for 23+ years, and I get it. The purpose, goal, target, was never clear. My children and grandchildren are not interested even considering the fact that I, my father, uncles, and cousins have served since WWII.
The veteran administration continued deceit disrespecting veterans for both health care and disability benefits is dramatic The younger generation has witnessed their actions. Neither my children or my siblings have chisen to serve. We are patriots and the children have chosen to serve elsewhere. For generations we have proudly setved in the military back to WW I. Like myself , bronze star, decorated many met a family requirement of "honor" acknowledging appreciation and gratitude of our citizens. Yes, Im youngest combat veteran to serve (78).
Can foreigners apply
You forgot one key thing, lots of people do not want to serve under the current president as he does not show any signs of caring about the military and what they do.
How clueless does the author have to be. It's not about withdrawal from Afghanistan, it's not about military becoming all-inclusive, putting combat readiness in the last place, nooo…. it's about witnessing deployments.
If the Recruiters stop telling partial lies to the young men and women that they want to join the service they just might get them to sign up! The other thing is bonuses and jobs in the military. Only few jobs provided a bonus to re-enlist and for the most part unless you are, EOD , Intelligence or a special field you are given crap for a bonus. At one point I met a service member re-enlisting after his first four years were about to end and he receive over forty thousand for his first four years and he was getting close to eighty thousand to stay in. The highest someone in the field I was in was eight thousand. The two decades I served my field was only given about three bonuses while those special fields got them every year!
The resolute virtue of American Military Members to accomplish an ill-defined mission with no clear objectives, no end strategy and self-defeating rules of engagement dictated by politicians, who are squeamish about inflicting total destruction and death upon our enemies was in stark contrast to the virtue-less self-serving leadership of our nation's government and economy. Why should we fight to enrich cowardly virtue-less un-American globalist corporate oligarchs and their political sycophants, who only pledge allegiance to themselves and subjugate we the people for their vulgar and undeserved aggrandizement?
I strongly agree, and as a service member that was deployed twice question weather I would go again as a marine or an army veteran. There is not a day that I don’t feel the guilt of the 4000 families that have lost a service member that lost their lives not to include the thousands that came back injured mentally and physically. I joined to make a career out of it, and with a rift going on in the 90s kept me from accomplishing that! We definitely need to take a hard look, learn from our past, and try to improve on the future!
I joined the USAR in the mid 1980s to help defend my country from the USSR. My dad had joined the Army in WWII to defend our country. Why would anyone join the Army to defend Tawian or an Islamic country in the tarbaby sandbox of the Middle East?
The "National Interests" of the USA should include protecting our own borders. We need Congress to have a consistent border policy instead of a President changing border policy at their whim.
Our military men and women in Vietnam were exposed to agent orange and other defoliation chemicals. In Desert Storm, again our people were exposed to nasty chemicals.
When we harm our own citizens that are giving their lives for our country and the leadership denys them the best, fastest efforts to heal and treat them….you can see that trust evaporates.
Going forward the leadership seems to have attempted to embrace policies of weakness.
While many women are capable of excellence in many positions within the armed forces, I found that having women in duties in which they might be killed hit my head and heart in a way that removed the idea of honor towards defending women & the youth of our nation. Plus it was a distraction having the opposite sex in near proximity.
Today transexual issues and other female issues continue to be a distraction from men committed to dealing an enemy overwhelming force to achieve goals.
Another distraction is our own leadership only seems to want to respond to enemies with equal responses. Be it Space Force and responses to defend orbiting assets, defending troops in the Middle East, or most any other confrontation.
Please review the Constitution and you will find we are NOT to have a large standing Army unless in time of declared war by Congress. Review the funding requirements for the Navy versus the Army in the Constitution that people throughout our government have sworn an oath to.
As long as honor, truth, and fidelity to the Constitution is null and void….the only people that will enlist are those that can be gaslighted.
Adverts that make joining look fun and exciting are lame and unrealistic. Perhaps truth in your ad campaign s will gain more attraction. The Marines have the best ads.
Learn from the few, the proud, snd the brave.
Meanwhile our important Coast Guard is treated like a red headed stepchild. Until the Brass and President find the correct Constitutional balance for each branch….fewer and fewer people will want to be part of a failed experiment that is the US of A.
Thank you for allowing my presentation for your enlightment. Remember that other civilizations and cultures exist throughout the world. We in the USA post WWII are tired of funding and dying for the military industrial complex that Eisenhower warned us about in his parting speech as President.
Your dealing with the grandkids of the Vietnam vets. Also, what the White man has on done to people of color just since WWll. This brings me to a question that to this day I am unable to answer. If I were black could I serve this nation? Vets are tired of being lied to and used as political pawns. Vets gamble there lives for this nation when in there prime and this is what we get in our golden years. Unless this nation is attacked again, you may never reach your numbers again. I am a 76yr
old Vietnam looking to leave the country.
I dont know all of my buddies that are currently still in or getting out don't care about the war or politics if they get out its because there's a better paying job most people still in the military wished we made more money its hard to plan for a future after serving your country if your living paycheck to paycheck alot of your money also goes towards staying in regulation getting your haircut every 2 weeks buying new razor blades not to mention living on post if married or off post usually your company or place of work is going to be around a half an hour drive every day just to get there that piles on lots of gas money and oil changes. Not to mention you go there early for pt to have to drive back hoke to shower eat and change then drive back just to have to drive home again to eat food to drive back then finally at the end of the day finally go back home that's basically 3 hours of driving a day which is mental. Honestly if they payed soldiers based on minimum wage per state they are in 24/7 as the lowest pay for a private e fuzzy that would make loads of people join the military
Imagine sacrificing your 20’s and 30’s and suffering perhaps irrecoverable physical and mental injury in a war where your country sends you to fight but puts in place such absurd rules of engagement that you can’t effectively fight — all while you watch your best friends get killed and maimed. Your country’s idiotic idiotic rules of engagement hamstring your ability to fight and hand every tactical advantage to the enemy— then you watch everything you fought for just get handed to the enemy, stabbing your allies in the back and also providing to the enemy maybe a billion dollars worth of military equipment that you had a hard time getting enough access to while you were fighting. Imagine seeing all that and not wanting to voluntarily participate.
No the problem is young people these days are far too selfish and to worried about their phones a social media status. So let's be honest, stop trying to mask the fact we have become a feminine nation.
The biggest problem is that even when the country isn't at war, they are still deploying just as much as if there was a war, also training non stop. By the time there is a war, between all the rotations and field time, we are already too exhausted. I'm exhausted(Army). I got home from a Europe rotation of 9 months and then I had 2 years of constant field time and now I'm going back to Europe for 9 months and then another unit will take over for 9 months, while I come home and train in the field (living in the field) for another 2 years and then probably another rotation. If there's a war, my body is already too tired. Other people see this and why would they want to enlist? There is no down time, leave is only taken when they want you to go… Not because you want to go or even when you want to go… You don't get a say in your own leave, your family never sees you… My kid is so used to not seeing me he doesn't even question when I don't come home for weeks on end(field). It's a miracle I still have a wife.
I think you meant "unwinnable" in the last sentence. Didn't you?
The ghost that haunts the military also includes law enforcement
You forgot to mention Congress also silently eroding the long standing retirement program for the new “blended plan” mirroring a traditional 401k as allowed to the traditional 50% pension after serving 20 years. Why deal with the dangers of war, toxic leadership of the military, and constant moving to basically get equal or less than what a normal employer would offer. Before the critics jump in, I did 16 years in the Army, deployed to Iraq Afghanistan and several other countries. I joined in 2007 and wouldn’t do it again under todays military. And anyone I know looking to do so- I’ve offered the same advice.