This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow to a warm reception from his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. While much of the world has lined up in opposition to Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and its conduct of the ongoing war there, Beijing remains a steadfast supporter of Moscow—undoubtedly the most important one. But this was the first meeting between the two leaders since the invasion, and it brings forth a question that has been lingering in the background of the war in Ukraine for more than a year now: Would China launch a similar aggressive action against Taiwan?

In this episode of the Modern War Institute Podcast, John Amble is joined by Chris Dougherty of the Center for a New American Security. He and his CNAS colleagues conducted a wargame that sought to identify viable strategic approaches for both the United States and Taiwan to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan’s outlying islands. What they found as the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.” Chris describes what that entails—and what other insights the wargame brought forth—during the conversation.

You can listen to the full episode below. And if you aren’t already subscribed to the MWI Podcast, be sure to find it on Apple PodcastsStitcherSpotifyTuneIn, or your favorite podcast app so you don’t miss an episode. While you’re there, please take just a moment to leave the podcast a rating or give it a review!

Note: This episode was originally released in 2021.

Image credit: Nicolas Raymond / hehaden (adapted by MWI)