The world is urbanizing, and doing so quickly. By 2030, 60 percent of the global population will live in cities. At the same time, the US military remains committed to maintaining the capability to conduct an immensely wide range of operations—from humanitarian assistance and noncombatant evacuation to security force assistance and high-intensity conflict. With these two facts taken together, it’s not hard to see why Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley recently declared, “In the future, I can say with very high degrees of confidence, the American Army is probably going to be fighting in urban areas.”
But many questions remain. Is it, in fact, a given, that US forces will find themselves fighting in dense urban terrain? Are current tactics, techniques, and procedures already sufficient to fight and win on city streets? Does technological innovation hold the key to solving military problems in urban areas? If so, what technologies will dominate?
That’s why we recently asked for your thoughts on the unique challenges posed by cities. And you responded by highlighting a range of issues any military force that seeks to prepare itself for the future urban battlefield must take into account.
Take a look at a sampling of responses below. And let us know on Twitter if you think there’s something we’ve missed!
The inevitability of Urban Warfare weighed against the strategic wisdom of throwing away the advantages of maneuver [ warfare doctrines] in such an environment. #urbanwarfareproject https://t.co/GcNkC6DJ8z
— The Lens of history (@Lensofhistory84) June 5, 2018
What will be the most challenging aspect of the urban battlefield of tomorrow?
An overlapping extreme concentration of the information domain. Especially dual-use signals like wifi and mobile.#UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/Nn3ogpdnQe
— XO 460 Squadron (@XO460SQN) June 5, 2018
Urban Challenge #UrbanWarfareProject : 1) density of people, buidings, cars, connected devices, germs, ect.., 2) difficulty replicating density in training & leader development, 3) pink flamingo – known, known w/out institutional energy. Read @ArmyMadSci https://t.co/6VTzO4Ov8E
— U.S. Army Mad Sci (@ArmyMadSci) June 5, 2018
Some aspects of urban environment density are new! #UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/gXObVGmtLQ
— U.S. Army Mad Sci (@ArmyMadSci) June 5, 2018
Density of commercial sensors will challenge US Army forces operarating in future urban environments. #UrbanWarfareProject Read @ArmyMadSci https://t.co/akwrXsBKvq
— U.S. Army Mad Sci (@ArmyMadSci) June 5, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Protection of civilians
— Tim Anderson (@soldierreader) June 5, 2018
Ex URBAN BEAR Day 1. CFA summarises the need to equip for the urban fight and to train our leaders for the psychological challenge. ‘Streetcraft’ is as important as Battlecraft. #urbanwarfare #urbanbear @CHACR_Camberley @HQARRC @BritishArmy @BritishArmy @Commander8X pic.twitter.com/gqQP25nUUz
— ARRC ECMI (@ARRCECMI) June 5, 2018
Urban warfare history shows crossing the urban deadzone (area around the bldg being attacked) as one of the biggest challenges, doctrine says suppress it, density increases likelyhood of civilians. Method at risk to political feasibility. Need alternatives. #urbanwarfareproject
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) June 5, 2018
Thank you to @RochesterBridge for allowing some fantastic #urbanwarfareproject training. #tomorrowsleaders https://t.co/mONPtALmDm
— Commandant RSME (@CommandantRSME) June 5, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject #AI, #Drones, precision fire, and urban maneuver.
— John Sullivan (@ZFTWARNING) June 5, 2018
Subterranean dimension and legality of targeting. #UrbanWarfareProject
— IAMG (@MilGeoscience) June 5, 2018
Developing precision in intelligence to a level commensurate with our precision in strike. We can hit where we want/when we want. Our issue is whether we know everything about what we hit (& its immediate surrounds) to inform the strike decision. #UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/qQFs9zZMow
— Jason (@JasFourTwo) June 5, 2018
2. Asymmetric Media Effects. The scale of casualties and damage will seem historically high to contemporary audiences & this can be (is being) exploited by adversaries. Maintaining support once we start difficult without education about likely costs prior. #UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/qQFs9zZMow
— Jason (@JasFourTwo) June 5, 2018
Long night ahead as Reserve Demolition ring mains are laid out and charges fixed on @RochesterBridge – real complexities to overcome. Great training for Royal Engineers. Traffic flowing. #urbanwarfareproject @Ubique_Will @MedwayMessenger @kmfmofficial @bbcsoutheast pic.twitter.com/IyD4H3BBLV
— Commandant RSME (@CommandantRSME) June 5, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Ancient siege & tunnel warfare collide w/ emerging tech like AI, UAVs, precision & ISR. Key challenge: States use tech to remove troops from the battlefield, while non-state groups use tech as a force multiplier. This reduces asymmetries & prolongs conflict https://t.co/8GmHJoPOnW
— Rita Konaev (@RitaKonaev) June 6, 2018
Positive Identification. Tech won’t ever tell who is in a building, only humans you trust can. #UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/HW2W9UDBwt
— Josh Grubbs (@wpsooner) June 6, 2018
Obstacle breaching. When US forces lost fights, Mogadishu ‘93, Sadr City ‘04. Enemy forces put up hasty but effective obstacles to block streets, support ambushes. Grozny ‘94, Iraq Army Mosul ‘16. Undertrained task for maneuver forces without their engineers #UrbanWarfareProject
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) June 6, 2018
the most challenging aspect of the urban battlefield of tomorrow will be controlling decentralized operations with sporadic communications because the enemy can monitor and DF all transmissions #UrbanWarfareProject.
— Doug Winton (@dwwinton) June 6, 2018
the most challenging aspect of the urban battlefield of tomorrow will be controlling the narrative with ubiquitous media sources on the battlefield. #UrbanWarfareProject
— Doug Winton (@dwwinton) June 6, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject the most challenging aspect of the urban battlefield of tomorrow will be controlling subterranean spaces
— Doug Winton (@dwwinton) June 6, 2018
the most challenging aspect of the urban battlefield of tomorrow will be isolating the battlefield. #UrbanWarfareProject.
— Doug Winton (@dwwinton) June 6, 2018
Two perennial urban operations issues requiring particular attention are sustainment and human intelligence – @WarInstitute @ArmyMadSci #UrbanWarfareProject
— Small Wars Journal (@smallwars) June 6, 2018
Three “Warhacks” for Urban Combat challenge #urbanwarfareproject https://t.co/C3AyPfekII
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) June 6, 2018
“Even a drone without explosives, such as the racing drones that can go from zero to eighty miles per hour in a second, flown straight into an attacker’s position, could interrupt an attack.” #urbanwarfareproject https://t.co/Itnex2SDpQ
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) June 6, 2018
The largest challenge from megacities is conceptual rather than tactical. Western militaries need to first better understand cities and their unique operational challenges before fixating on tactical solutions. #UrbanWarfareProject
— Alexander Salt (@AGFSalt) June 6, 2018
How does military ethics play into Urban Warfare? Is it worse to blockade (starve out) urban areas as opposed to open warfare? #UrbanWarfareProject
— The Lens of history (@Lensofhistory84) June 6, 2018
The increasing automation of warfare. – lethal drones (air and ground), cyber weapons, and who controls the RF spectrum. All of this factors in complex terrain fights against near-peer state actors are the next big challenges to overcome in any #UrbanWarfareProject
— Warrior_Streak (@WarriorStreak) June 6, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject what about developing a way to move unnoticed in urban terrain? Electronic camouflage, localized jamming/emp.
— John Wiff (@Carbonfire177) June 6, 2018
According to the UN, 180,000 people move to a city a day. That is scary. #UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/6oBagJ1q63
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) June 7, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject
Major challenges:
1.) Avoiding civilian deaths
2.) Maneuvering through crowded streets, mounted and dismounted
3.) Insurgent drones— Karlie Ann (@KarlieMurphy) June 7, 2018
“Focus training on high intensity conflict, with emphasis on operating in dense urban terrain” #UrbanWarfareProject #urbanwarfare https://t.co/UcCjepa8FM
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) June 8, 2018
The layered and interwoven cultural geography of cities, especially mega cities, will be one of the most challenging aspects for modern militaries to visualize and understand in these environments #UrbanWarfareProject
— Joel Radunzel (@JoelRadunzel) June 8, 2018
Density of everything. Terrain, noncombatants, sensory input. So hard to prepare people for. #UrbanWarfareProject
— H K (@herne_kzn) June 8, 2018
-Urbanized environs with interlinking structures/ratholes & insurgent forces
-Western powers physically weighed down by body armor with limited mobility
-Modern cities under siege with thousands of idps. Management and coordination required is considerable#UrbanWarfareProject— J (@JordanHierro) June 8, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject sewers as concealed lines of approach retreat and supply. Now that’s a book od like to research
— paul hanks (@The_Data_Adonis) June 8, 2018
How to generate sufficient dismounted infantry mass? #UrbanWarfareProject
— grantangusbrown (@grant_brown_a) June 9, 2018
The constant strain. Clearing a city requires such a slow and sustained pace that it’s easy to burn out. You can’t check every room in every building. You’re going to miss stuff, especially if you rush. That makes combat more sustained and less predictable. #UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/xmVfrzrEmM
— I, Grunt (@RickestPatrick) June 11, 2018
The ability to maintain complex force integration in a EW/ cyber contested environment presents a very difficult challenge. Increased use of electronic sensors, communication kit and unmanned devices will be an asset but also expand a forces vulnerable areas. #UrbanWarfareProject
— Clint J (@cabraclint2) June 12, 2018
Issues of urban warfare – maintaining support by being SEEN to be discriminating and fighting within ROE. How do you win whilst demonstrating courageous restraint? #UrbanWarfareProject
— John Bailey (@johnccbailey) June 12, 2018
#4PWRR excited to become the @7thRats lead on #UrbanOperations. The challenge: operationalise #Streetcraft. @SpencerGuard @WarInstitute @1ArmdInf @antbruceking #TIGERS #FiercePride @1PWRR @2PWRRTigers @3pwrr @1UKDivision #UrbanWarfareProject pic.twitter.com/amtOu7TBg2
— 4 PWRR Tigers (@4PWRRTigers) June 12, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProjecthttps://t.co/3f4EaOoFHC
— The Dupuy Institute (TDI) (@dupuyinstitute) June 12, 2018
What will be the most challenging aspect of the urban battlefield of tomorrow?
👉How will the distinguish-ability between friendly of foe in close combat and the human shielding prospects we see happening more in urban warfare today change your approach?#UrbanWarfareProject— jeff franzius (@jk55044) June 12, 2018
Measuring the Effects of Combat in Cities, Phase II – part 1 https://t.co/1H6HvjAVK4 pic.twitter.com/wFq1ZMeyJp
— The Dupuy Institute (TDI) (@dupuyinstitute) June 11, 2018
Measuring the Effects of Combat in Cities, Phase II – part 2 https://t.co/Sj6zR3vgux pic.twitter.com/3JqRjWs3Fb
— The Dupuy Institute (TDI) (@dupuyinstitute) June 12, 2018
Traffic and congestion delaying Emergency Response.
Impact on resources/utilities. #UrbanWarfareProject pic.twitter.com/SHm4fyMMhF
— Rosie (@Istillwantapony) June 12, 2018
In urban guerrilla warfare city life provides both cover and targets #urbanwarfareproject
— Thomas Tormey (@tormey_history) June 12, 2018
The most difficult challenge is the protection of civilians!! #urbanwarfareproject
— William Sheehan (@willsheehan68) June 12, 2018
Sub-terranian ISR and targeting. Employing fire support requires *very* creative thinking. Add that to my CV @WarInstitute #UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/zuLL9jfJut
— FA CWOB (@FA_CWOB) June 12, 2018
To me the most obvious challenge of the city as a battlefield is the presence of civilians and civilian infrastructure. They must be spared under #IHL #UrbanWarfareProject
— Vincent Bernard (@VBernardICRC) June 13, 2018
Target acquisition. #UrbanWarfareProject https://t.co/eJ0K56ELkW
— The Dragon Portal (@dragon_troop) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Reality -adapted urban fighting
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Off the shelf drones
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Who has the best AI
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Electronic Warfare
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject More advanced opposition hackers
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Lack of constant air support
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject foot infantry
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
Lots of civilians and civilian objects, including exposed, vulnrrable infrastructure essential to the well-being and survival of those civilians #UrbanWarfareProject
— Simon Bagshaw (@simonbagshaw) June 13, 2018
Situational awareness #UrbanWarfareProject
— Jan-Willem Maas (@JW_Maas) June 13, 2018
Obviously, people. In particulary civilians. Protection of civilians #PoC but … CoG is Control of Population #CoP. #UrbanWarfareProject
— Koulutuspäällikkö (@PEKOULJ7) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Sleeper cells/Compartmentalization/
Horizontal networks— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Mines, IED’s, Fake Rock mines
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Technicals, Especially Technicals in Africa
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Technicals, Vulcan cannon
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject
BMPT-72, Golan Launcher, TOS-1, Shilka, UR-77— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject SVBIED
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject cheap ubiquitous sensors
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject proliferation of thermobaric weapons
— John (@jay345lennon) June 13, 2018
Ensuring uninterrupted supply of water, electricity and fuel for the population #UrbanWarfareProject
— Paul Molinaro (@unipmo) June 14, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject Targeted killings
— John (@jay345lennon) June 14, 2018
One word: civilians #UrbanWarfareProject (More’s the point, how to protect and save their lives in UW?)
— GorseFires Collectif (@GorseFires) June 15, 2018
#UrbanWarfareProject – Reconstruction https://t.co/LtefzAEzad
— Stefan Soesanto (@iiyonite) June 15, 2018
@WarInstitute #UrbanWarfareProject Remote controlled up armoured SVBIED
— John (@jay345lennon) June 16, 2018