Author: M. L. Cavanaugh

Crimea: Psychological Warfare in Real Time

By Major Matt Cavanaugh

Emile Simpson wrote in his book – War From the Ground Up – about the psychological aspect to warfare (p. 35):

“War is a competition to impose meaning on people, as much emotional as rational, in which one’s enemy is usually the key target audience. Defeat is not a ‘verdict’ handed out by an independent arbitrator of war; defeat is a perceived state which typically is violently forced (or successfully threatened) by one side upon the other.”

In a forthcoming paper for Military Review, I took a hack at defining this tricky psychological battlefield relationship/space – calling it the “human environment” (*as opposed to “domain,” which I prefer, but more on that another time).   I defined the human environment as “the sum of physical, psychological, cultural, and social interactions between strategically-relevant populations and operational military forces in a particular war or conflict.”

Either way one chooses to term it, we’re seeing this play out at the last Ukrainian military garrisons in Crimea –  in particular Belbek Air Base.  The Russians surrounded, and eventually took, the base.  Interviews provide a glimpse of the decision forced upon the trapped troops.  

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War Council: Crisis in Crimea – Military Strategic Considerations

**NOTE: What follows are remarks from the War Council panel on the “Crisis in Crimea” on March 7, 2014.

By Major Matt Cavanaugh

In 1939, Churchill quipped, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”

Winston wouldn’t – but I feel like I owe it to you and the Profession to try.  So here goes.

We should note at the outset, strategy is inherently adversarial – which makes it seem black/white or binary – reality is like a Rubik’s cube, multifaceted shifting mosaic.  With only seven minutes to speak I’ll necessarily have to present simplifications.

 Policy/Strategy – what do they want and how will they get there?

Russia

-So far, Putin has stated that he does not intend on annexing Crimea (which may change in light of the local Crimean Parliament vote – and subject to domestic Russian politics). It seems that his policy objective there is at least designed to influence and intimidate the new government.  

-His strategy for doing so is to use the threat of military force – recent reporting puts his troop strength somewhere between 16,000 and 20,000.  He’s cleverly sunk one of his own ships to create a non-violent blockade of the local Ukrainian naval forces.

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Security Paradoxes: Environment and Spending

By Major Matt Cavanaugh

This has been a really busy week – we’re sponsoring a panel on Ukraine tomorrow – which means that I’ll be posting remarks over the weekend.  So it’s not all bad: a slow week this week means that there will be fresh analysis and commentary for you this coming week!

Security Paradox #1: Environment

But for now, I’d like to call attention to a public address from a couple years ago by the current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Martin Dempsey.  

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Latvia: Some Notes on Small State Security

By Major Matt Cavanaugh

I’m in Riga, Latvia this week as part of a West Point Department of Military Instruction training team detailed to assist the Latvian National Defence Academy in curriculum development.  The team has been here since Sunday, February 23rd, and will depart on Friday, February 28th.  As usual with these sorts of things, our hosts have been generous and gracious, even blessing us with some high quality horseradish vodka last night as part of a “thank you” for the progress we’ve made so far.  Tasty former-Soviet delicacies aside, the trip has got me thinking about small state security.  Through military functions I’ve traveled to a lot of these smaller nations: Singapore (approx. 5 million people, 25 by 40 miles in total physical size), New Zealand (about 4.5 million people, roughly the size of the state of Colorado), Norway (about 5 million people who all happen to be great at biathlon), and now Latvia (approx. 2 million people with a country you could easily drive across from meal-to-meal).    All these countries happen to be littoral (or exposed to water) and all have some geostrategic considerations in common.

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