A poll published last summer indicated that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe another world war will occur in the next five to ten years. The results of the poll, conducted by the research firm YouGov, revealed that 39 percent of respondents believe a world war is “somewhat likely” and 22 percent believe it is “very likely” within the next decade—with a large majority, 77 percent, believing the United States would be involved. These disconcerting results are grounded in the reality that an axis of aggressors (i.e., China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) are reinforcing one another militarily, economically, and diplomatically in conflicts around the world, including in the Middle East and in the largest major land war in Europe since World War II. Based on the stated intentions and brazen aggression of the Chinese Communist Party leadership, crisis and conflict are also likely to cascade into the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait.
Strangely, the fear of a looming world war has not generated a sense of urgency to prevent it. Meanwhile, Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed the inadequacy of the US defense industrial base and the fragility of global supply chains. Attempts to address these national security risks have fallen short, endangering the military’s ability to operate in sufficient scale and for ample duration in a major war.
In Ukraine and along Israel’s borders, new weapons, tactics, and forms of warfare have emerged. For example, Ukrainian and Russian units employ thousands of drones and other autonomous systems every day. Moreover, the war in Ukraine is surrounded by a wider shadow war involving Russia and China. Both states have engaged in sustained campaigns of political subversion, cyber-enabled information warfare, and attacks on critical infrastructure, including the cutting of undersea cables.
Why Study War?
George Washington observed in his first annual address to Congress, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.” In a period of increasing danger, preserving peace will require modernization of the US joint force, as well as increased production capacity in the defense industrial base. These initiatives will take time. What the military can do now is intensify ongoing efforts to improve military readiness. Readiness has a material dimension: Equipment must be well-maintained. It also has a training dimension: Units must demonstrate their ability to fight as teams under all anticipated conditions of combat. But readiness also has an intellectual dimension: Officers must be expert in the art of warfare.
Expertise in combat units entails knowledge of how to fight and sustain operations to accomplish the mission. But officers must also understand how to integrate the military instrument with other elements of national power to defeat the enemy and achieve sustainable outcomes consistent with political objectives. The interdisciplinary War Studies program at the United States Military Academy at West Point was designed to foster this understanding. Using the framework proposed by the military historian Sir Michael Howard, West Point’s War Studies program will focus on the study of war and warfare in width, depth, and context.
First, Howard advised studying “in width” by observing how warfare has changed and developed over a long period of time. He wrote that “knowledge of principles of war must be tempered by a sense of change, and applied with a flexibility of mind.” Second, he advocated studying “in depth.” Howard observed that to truly understand warfare, one must “get behind the order subsequently imposed by the historian” and catch glimpses of the “confusion and horror of the real experience.” Lastly, Howard recommended studying warfare “in context.” He understood that “the roots of victory and defeat often have to be sought far from the battlefield.” Understanding the social, cultural, economic, human, moral, political, and psychological contexts of war, therefore, requires an understanding of political science, social science, philosophy, literature, geography, and psychology. For American officers, the study of war in context must also include an appreciation of the military’s role under the Constitution and an understanding of civil-military relations.
The War Studies program will emphasize the study of recent and ongoing conflicts to make a grounded projection into the future. The program will also convene world-class scholars to anticipate the demands of future war and ensure that cadets are prepared, if necessary, to lead teams of American warriors to fight and win. Additionally, a war studies community of practice will bring together scholars who teach, research, and write about the direction of war from across the academy. West Point will foster collaboration to enhance cadet education and generate ideas important for securing our nation from current and emerging threats.
The need to study the present and anticipate the future is acute. Officers commissioned in our military today are entering a volatile, uncertain, and competitive environment. The war in Ukraine continues to rage along a nearly eight-hundred-mile-long front with a complex static trench system. Seemingly reminiscent of World War I, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is, in actuality, a harbinger of a new era of warfare. Skies swarm with millions of drones conducting reconnaissance, collecting data, and engaging in targeting. The ubiquity of drones has highlighted the importance of electronic warfare as a countermeasure. This, in turn, has accelerated the development of even more sophisticated drones that are increasingly autonomous and enabled by artificial intelligence.
The grinding nature of the conflict, combined with the lethality of this emerging technology, has resulted in, conservatively, hundreds of thousands of casualties. Yet, the conflict does not appear to be winding down as North Korean soldiers have joined the fight. The participation of a nonadjacent state as a cobelligerent is a significant escalation and dramatically internationalizes what was a European conflict. Unfortunately, this conflagration is now global and growing.
Iran, which works in tandem with Russia on weapons development, information sharing, and propaganda, has set off a chain reaction of violence in the Middle East that continues to spread at an alarming rate. Iran’s attempts to defeat Israel using its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have failed. Israel’s success against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has forced Iran to come out of the shadows and use drone and ballistic missile attacks in response. Iran also unleashed the Houthis to aggressively disrupt global trade and directly attack US naval assets in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
It is unlikely that either Russia or Iran foresaw the consequences of their escalatory actions. The most striking example is the shocking and precipitous collapse of their puppet regime in Syria. While the fall of Bashar al-Assad is a significant geopolitical setback for both states, it has not broken their strategic partnership. This may be due to the transactional and opportunistic nature of the relationship. Regardless, the loss of Syria has not stopped the integration of their activities, especially the execution of their ongoing military campaigns. In fact, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are increasingly intertwined as Russia and Iran act more like a coalition than states operating in a regional vacuum.
This coalition is clearly not limited to Russia and Iran with North Korea joining the war in Ukraine. But the most important member of this axis of aggressors is China, which is determined to supplant the United States as the primary global actor. Every action—whether accelerating an already rapid militarization or building first-strike nuclear capabilities—is in furtherance of this goal. Partnering with other revisionist states that have a similar vision—namely, the end of the American-led international order—is therefore natural. Of course there are historic disagreements among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. However, these are overshadowed by a “shared strategic theme: resistance to the United States” making this alignment “the greatest threat to vital U.S. national interests in sixty years.”
But difficulties in the conduct of war often stem from a neglect of the past rather than a failure to anticipate the future. That is why the study of the history of war and warfare will be foundational to the program. Courses in the core curriculum for all cadets include History of the Army of the Republic, History of the Military Art, and Officership. West Point also recently established a War Studies major as part of its continuing effort to prepare graduates to lead soldiers in battle and provide the best military advice to civilian officials at the highest levels of government. The War Studies program allows cadets to think consistent with Michael Howard’s framework. Specializations and concentrations, such as “Warfare and Operations” and “Strategic Studies,” coupled with courses such as “Military Innovation” and “Grand Strategy,” further encourage cadets to deepen and diversify their approaches to war at all levels.
The stakes are high. The coalescing of an axis of aggressors led by two revanchist powers on the Eurasian landmass—China and Russia—has ushered in a new era of strategic competition. The arena of competition with this axis is global as influential nonaligned states such as India, Brazil, and Nigeria are closely watching to determine how best to further their own interests. Deterring war and prevailing in competition short of war will require unity of effort among allies and strategic partners across the free world. Future officers who are expert in war will be critical to maintaining the upper hand in this uncertain strategic environment.
Preparing for Victory
To win in an era of strategic competition requires engagement in the world and a commitment to strengthening the nation’s diplomatic, informational, military, and economic capabilities. The success of our military will be driven, as it always has been, by the quality of its leaders and the grit of its people. For 250 years, predating even the founding of our nation, officers with a keen understanding of the profession of arms have guided the military through the calamities and opportunities of war. These leaders relied not only on their own experiences but also the lessons of the past to inform their decisions in uncertain times.
A solid grounding in the study of war, therefore, is a national security imperative. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth wrote in a January 29, 2025 memorandum to the force that “the Department of Defense (DoD) has an obligation to the American public to ensure their sons and daughters serve under the best leadership we can provide them.” That leadership includes officers who have dedicated time to studying war in width, depth, and context. Programs like the War Studies program at West Point can prepare officers to fight and win the wars of the future, whatever form those conflicts might take.
Brigadier General Shane Reeves serves as the fifteenth dean of the Academic Board of the United States Military Academy. He previously served as head of the Department of Law at West Point, and he has written extensively on the law of armed conflict and national security issues. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is the founder of the Lieber Institute for Law and Warfare.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
Image credit: Robert L. Fisher III, US Army